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Still Searching For Positive Returns At The Track: Empirical Results From 2,000 Hong Kong Races

In: Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Randall G. Chapman

    (Chapman and Associates, Winchester, Massachusetts, USA)

Abstract

The Bolton and Chapman (1986) multinomial logit modeling approach to handicapping horse races is extended to a new setting with much more sophisticated handicapping factors and a larger database. Applying a 20-variable pure fundamental multinomial logit handicapping model to 2,000 Hong Kong races yields clear evidence of positive returns to win betting with a simple single unit bets strategy in holdout sample predictions. By eliminating extreme longshots with estimated win probabilities less than 0.04, expected returns in excess of 20% are observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall G. Chapman, 2008. "Still Searching For Positive Returns At The Track: Empirical Results From 2,000 Hong Kong Races," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Donald B Hausch & Victor SY Lo & William T Ziemba (ed.), Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets, chapter 18, pages 173-181, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789812819192_0018
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