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Quadratic-Interval Innovation Diffusion Models for New Product Sales Forecasting

In: Management Of Technology Innovation And Value Creation Selected Papers from the 16th International Conference on Management of Technology

Author

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  • Fang-Mei Tseng

    (Department of International Business, Yuan Ze University 135, Yuan Tung Rd., Chung-li, Taiwan 320, Taiwan)

Abstract

An appropriate sales forecasting method is vital to the success of a business firm. The logistic model and the Gompertz model and a series innovation diffusion models which is based on the Bass model (Bass, 1969) are usually adopted to forecast the growth trends and the potential market volume of innovative products. All of these models rely on statistics to explain the relationships between dependent and independent variables, and use crisp parameters. However, fuzzy relationships are more appropriate for describing the relationships between dependent and independent variables; these relationships require less data than traditional models to generate reasonable estimates of parameters. Therefore, we have combined fuzzy regression with the logistic and Gompertz models to develop a quadratic-interval Gompertz model and a quadratic-interval logistic model, and we applied the models to three cases. Our practical application of the two models shows that they are appropriate tools that can reveal the best and worst possible sales volume outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang-Mei Tseng, 2008. "Quadratic-Interval Innovation Diffusion Models for New Product Sales Forecasting," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Mostafa Hashem Sherif & Tarek M Khalil (ed.), Management Of Technology Innovation And Value Creation Selected Papers from the 16th International Conference on Management of Technology, chapter 25, pages 415-433, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789812790545_0025
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M Günther & C Stummer & L M Wakolbinger & M Wildpaner, 2011. "An agent-based simulation approach for the new product diffusion of a novel biomass fuel," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(1), pages 12-20, January.
    2. Shi, Xiaohui & Chumnumpan, Pattarin, 2019. "Modelling market dynamics of multi-brand and multi-generational products," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(1), pages 199-210.
    3. Wong, Bo K. & Lai, Vincent S., 2011. "A survey of the application of fuzzy set theory in production and operations management: 1998-2009," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 157-168, January.

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