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Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013

In: Selected Works of William T Ziemba A Memorial Volume

Author

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  • A. N. SHIRYAEV
  • M. V. ZHITLUKHIN
  • W. T ZIEMBA

Abstract

We study the land and stock markets in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013. While the Nikkei stock average in the late 1980s and its —48% crash in 1990 is generally recognized as a financial market bubble, a bigger bubble and crash was in the land market. The crash in the Nikkei which started on the first trading day of 1990 was predictable in April 1989 using the bond-stock earnings yield model which signalled a crash but not its exact moment. We show that it was possible to use the changepoint detection model based solely on price movements for profitable exits of long positions both circa 1990 and in 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • A. N. Shiryaev & M. V. Zhitlukhin & W. T Ziemba, 2024. "Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard MacLean & Sébastien Lleo (ed.), Selected Works of William T Ziemba A Memorial Volume, chapter 19, pages 331-351, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811285530_0019
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    Keywords

    William Ziemba; Financial Planning Models; Racetrack Betting; Sports Analytics; Market Anomalies; Risk Factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

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