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Predicting the Equity Premium with the Implied Volatility Spread

In: Handbook of Investment Analysis, Portfolio Management, and Financial Derivatives In 4 Volumes

Author

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  • Charles Cao
  • Timothy Simin
  • Han Xiao

Abstract

We show that the call-put implied volatility spread (IVS) outperforms many well-known predictors of the U.S. equity premium at return horizons up to six months over the period from 1996:1 to 2017:12. The predictive ability of the IVS is unrelated to the dividend yield and is useful in explaining the cross-section of returns. Decomposing the IVS, we find the longer run predictive ability of the IVS operates primarily through a cash flow channel. We also find the IVS is significantly related to indicators of aggregate market direction and expected market conditions. Our results are consistent with the IVS reflecting market sentiment as well as information about informed trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Cao & Timothy Simin & Han Xiao, 2024. "Predicting the Equity Premium with the Implied Volatility Spread," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & Alice C Lee & John C Lee (ed.), Handbook of Investment Analysis, Portfolio Management, and Financial Derivatives In 4 Volumes, chapter 10, pages 321-361, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811269943_0010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Accounting; Financial Auditing; Mutual Funds; Hedge Funds; Asset Pricing; Options; Portfolio Analysis; Risk Management; Investment Analysis; Momentum Analysis; Behavior Analysis; Futures; Index Futures; CDCs; Financial Econometrics; Statistics; Financial Derivatives; Financial Accounting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • M42 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Auditing
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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