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A Pick 6 Tale

In: Sports Analytics

Author

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  • William T. Ziemba

Abstract

This chapter discusses an interesting Pick 6 in the mud at Belmont on May 30, 2021 where I investigate combining the picks of three expert handicappers to try to merge them together to win the Pick 6 and collect a number of Pick 5/6’s. It turns out that the merger would have been very successful to get a large Pick 6 and numerous Pick 5/6. Some other Rainbow and ordinary Pick 6’s are also studied and suggest that bettors prefer long odds horses in the Pick 6 and not the favorites as widely thought. The results are suggestive of a special type of favorite-longshot bias which is much stronger than the usual bias in the win market.

Suggested Citation

  • William T. Ziemba, 2022. "A Pick 6 Tale," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sports Analytics, chapter 23, pages 411-431, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811250217_0023
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sports Analytics; Statistical Analysis of Sports Decisions; NFL Football; Thoroughbred Racing; Basketball; Baseball; Hockey; Jai Alai; Optimal Betting Strategies; Mean Reversion Risk; Arbitrage; Decision Strategies by Coaches;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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