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Stop Shy of the First Down

In: Sports Analytics

Author

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  • Peter Cotton

Abstract

On the first down, an NFL player should stop shy of the first down marker unless they can make several extra yards on the play. The decision can be clarified by introducing the notion of implied yards per possession. Strategies for 2nd and 3rd down with 1 yard are discussed. The often used strategy of pass on 2nd and run on 3rd is not optimal. The value of various field positions for success is also studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Cotton, 2022. "Stop Shy of the First Down," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sports Analytics, chapter 11, pages 139-151, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811250217_0011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sports Analytics; Statistical Analysis of Sports Decisions; NFL Football; Thoroughbred Racing; Basketball; Baseball; Hockey; Jai Alai; Optimal Betting Strategies; Mean Reversion Risk; Arbitrage; Decision Strategies by Coaches;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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