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Stock Market Crashes in 2006–2009: Were We Able to Predict Them?

In: HANDBOOK OF APPLIED INVESTMENT RESEARCH

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastien Lleo
  • William T Ziemba

Abstract

We investigate the stock market crashes in China, Iceland, and the US in the 2006-2009 period based on the results in Lleo and Ziemba (2012). The bond stock earnings yield difference model is used as a prediction tool. Historically, when the measure is too high, meaning that long bond interest rates are too high relative to the trailing earnings over price ratio, then there usually is a crash of 10% or more within four to twelve months. The model did in fact predict all three crashes. Iceland had a drop of fully 95%, China fell by two thirds and the US by 57%.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastien Lleo & William T Ziemba, 2020. "Stock Market Crashes in 2006–2009: Were We Able to Predict Them?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John B Guerard & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF APPLIED INVESTMENT RESEARCH, chapter 15, pages 323-353, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811222634_0015
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Applied Investments; Financial Forecasting; Portfolio Theory; Investment Strategies; Fundamental and Economic Anomalies; Behaviour of Investors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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