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An Empirical Analysis of the Trilemma of Exiting Expansionary Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

In: Banking Resilience and Global Financial Stability

Author

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  • Sebastian Lang
  • Wolfgang Schadner

Abstract

This study proposes a theoretic trilemma model for the case of a monetary union and measures it empirically. Accordingly, there exists a trade-off between stabilizing the monetary union, maintaining free capital mobility, and exiting expansionary monetary policy in the euro area. Our results underscore the existence of this trilemma and point out the importance of resolving it without jeopardizing the euro and financial stability in the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Lang & Wolfgang Schadner, 2024. "An Empirical Analysis of the Trilemma of Exiting Expansionary Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sabri Boubaker & Marwa Elnahass (ed.), Banking Resilience and Global Financial Stability, chapter 11, pages 299-316, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9781800614321_0011
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    Keywords

    Bank capital; Capital Buffers; Financial Stability; Macroprudential Regulation; Systemic Risks; Accounting Standards; Bank Stability; Financial Reporting; Local GAAP; IAS/IFRS; Lending Risk; Bank Capitalization; Bank Risk-Taking; Credit Risk; Asian Banks; Stability; Financial Development; Banking System; Growth; Regression; Human Resources; Trade: Population; Emerging Economies; Human Capital; Financial Stability; Intellectual Capital Efficiency; Human Capital Efficiency; Structural Capital Efficiency; Relational Capital Efficiency; Resources Based Theory; System Generalize Method of Moments; Competitive Environment; Islamic Banks; Asian Countries; Banking; Regulatory Capital; Bank Performance; Basel Accord; Profitability; Risk; Minimal Capital Requirements; Political Instability; Bank Supervision; 2SLS; Financial Institutions; Bank Holding Companies; Great Recession: FDIC; Financial Markets; Financial Crises; Economic Recessions; Heterogeneity; Systemic Risk; Dodd Frank; Foreign Exchange; Systemic Risk; Turkish Banking Sector; Volatility; Foreign Loans; Domestic Loans; Total Assets; Total Credits; Total Deposits; Interest Rates; Financial Crisis; Risk Management; Competency Development; Banks; Integrated; Resilience; Uncertainty; Pandemic; Risk; Actionable; Financial Stability; Systemic Risk; Crisis Management; Bank Recovery and Resolution; Capital Requirements; Climate Physical Risk; Climate Transition Risk; Digital Finance; Safety Net; Twin Transition; Market Illiquidity; Monetary Policy; Bank Lending Channel; Banks; Shocks; Loan Supply; OECD Countries; Financial Crisis; Interest Rates; Transmission Mechanism; European Monetary Union; European Central Bank; ECB Governing Council; Expansionary Monetary Policy; Trilemma; TARGET2-Balance; Inflation; Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI); ECB Anti-Fragmentation Instrument; Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP); Credit-to-GDP Gap; Out-of-Sample Forecasts; Augmented Credit Gap; Countercyclical Capital Buffer; Credit Gap; Decision-making Process; Basel Gap; Forecasting Gaps; One-Sided Gap Series; Two-Sided Gap Series; Altman; Z-Score; Economic Distress; Kazakhstan; Banks; Emerging Market; Multiple Discriminant Analysis; Financial Health; Prediction Accuracy; Wilks' Approach; Direct Approach; Microfinance; Microfinance Institutions; Global Financial Crisis; Covid-19; Social Outreach; Financial Sustainability; Operational Self-Sufficiency; NGOs; Capital Structure; Legal Status; Liquidity Hoarding; Economic Policy Uncertainty; Qatari Banks; Islamic Banks; Endogeneity; Instrumental Variable Approach; Economic Blockade; Asset-Side Liquidity Hoarding; Liability-Side Liquidity Hoarding; Gulf Cooperation Council;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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