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Spatial Model of U.S. Presidential Election in 2012

In: The Political Economy of Social Choices

Author

Listed:
  • Jeong Hyun Kim

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

  • Norman Schofield

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract

Using a survey from a nationally representative sample in the U.S., this paper applies a spatial model of election to 2012 U.S. Presidential election. Studying 2012 Presidential election allows us to examine the role of activists in U.S. elections, since this election is the first presidential election after the historical Citizens United decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, which resulted in the removal of the limits on campaign contribution. By estimating a set of multinomial logit models, we find that ideological distance between candidate and voters still plays a significant role in determining vote choice in the U.S. elections. However, the valence of candidate in 2012 election turns out to be not a statically significant predictor of vote choice. These finding suggest that the exogenous increase in campaign contribution has emphasized the role of ideological distance in voting behavior, while reducing the effect of valence.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeong Hyun Kim & Norman Schofield, 2016. "Spatial Model of U.S. Presidential Election in 2012," Studies in Political Economy, in: Maria Gallego & Norman Schofield (ed.), The Political Economy of Social Choices, pages 233-241, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpocp:978-3-319-40118-8_10
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-40118-8_10
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gallego, Maria & Schofield, Norman, 2017. "Modeling the effect of campaign advertising on US presidential elections when differences across states matter," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 160-181.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multinomial logit; Stochastic electoral models; U.S. presidential elections; Valence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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