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Formal Models, Causal Inference, and American Political Development

In: Causal Inference and American Political Development

Author

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  • Sean Gailmard

    (Department of Political Science, University of California)

Abstract

I explore the interconnections between formal models, causal inference, and American political development. I focus on formal models based on game theory and argue that, despite many years of mutual critique, game-theoretic models and APD share important methodological and substantive overlap. As a result, they have no inherent antagonism and, in some ways, can be mutually beneficial. For causal inference in APD, I argue that formal models are useful for two reasons: first to depict generative causal mechanisms that can explain the causal effects identified with standard empirical techniques; second, to show connections between packages of variables and lend credibility to causal arguments when strong identification is not otherwise possible. I examine these claims in light of examples from the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Sean Gailmard, 2024. "Formal Models, Causal Inference, and American Political Development," Studies in Public Choice, in: Jeffery A. Jenkins (ed.), Causal Inference and American Political Development, pages 99-123, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpchp:978-3-031-74913-1_6
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-74913-1_6
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