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Ambiguity aversion and the absence of indexed debt

In: Essays in Dynamic General Equilibrium Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Sujoy Mukerji

    (University of Oxford
    University College)

  • Jean-Marc Tallon

    (Université Paris I)

Abstract

Summary Following the seminal works of Schmeidler (1989), Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989), roughly put, an agent’s subjective beliefs are said to be ambiguous if the beliefs may not be represented by a unique probability distribution, in the standard Bayesian fashion, but instead by a set of probabilities. An ambiguity averse decision maker evaluates an act by the minimum expected value that may be associated with it. In spite of wide and long-standing support among economists for indexation of loan contracts there has been relatively little use of indexation, except in situations of extremely high inflation. The object of this paper is to provide a (theoretical) explanation for this puzzling phenomenon based on the hypothesis that economic agents are ambiguity averse. The present paper considers a general equilibrium model based on (Magill and Quinzii, 1997), with ambiguity averse agents, where both nominal and indexed bond contracts are available for trade and all relevant prices are determined endogenously. We obtain conditions which prompt an endogenous cessation of trade in indexed bonds: i.e., conditions under which there is no trade in indexed bonds in any equilibrium; only nominal bonds are traded. We argue that the obtained conditions mirror the known stylized facts about trade in indexed financial contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2005. "Ambiguity aversion and the absence of indexed debt," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Alessandro Citanna & John Donaldson & Herakles Polemarchakis & Paolo Siconolfi & Stephan E. Spear (ed.), Essays in Dynamic General Equilibrium Theory, pages 143-179, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:steccp:978-3-540-27192-5_7
    DOI: 10.1007/3-540-27192-9_7
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    Cited by:

    1. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
    2. Mukerji, Sujoy & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2003. "Ellsberg's two-color experiment, portfolio inertia and ambiguity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 299-316, June.
    3. Shin-Ichi Fukuda, 2012. "Infrequent Changes Of The Policy Target: Robust Optimal Monetary Policy Under Ambiguity," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-27.
    4. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon & EUREQua & CNRS - Universite Paris I., 2003. "An overview of economic applications of David Schmeidler`s models of decision making under uncertainty," Economics Series Working Papers 165, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Eisei Ohtaki, 2023. "Optimality in an OLG model with nonsmooth preferences," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 19(3), pages 611-659, September.
    6. Eisei Ohtaki & Hiroyuki Ozaki, 2015. "Monetary equilibria and Knightian uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(3), pages 435-459, August.
    7. Federica Ceron & Vassili Vergopoulos, 2021. "On stochastic independence under ambiguity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 71(3), pages 925-960, April.
    8. Eisei Ohtaki & Hiroyuki Ozaki, 2014. "Optimality in a Stochastic OLG Model with Ambiguity," Working Papers e069, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    9. Jan Werner, 2021. "Participation in risk sharing under ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 507-519, May.
    10. Mukerji, Sujoy & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2004. "Ambiguity aversion and the absence of wage indexation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 653-670, April.
    11. John Y Zhu, 2022. "Anticipating Disagreement in Dynamic Contracting [An incomplete contracts approach to financial contracting]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1241-1265.
    12. Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Research Agenda: Martin Schneider on Multiple Priors Preferences and Financial Markets," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), April.
    13. Martin Cincibuch & Matrina Horníková, 2008. "Measuring the Financial Markets’ Perception of EMU Enlargement: The Role of Ambiguity Aversion," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(05-06), pages 210-230, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money Supply; Ambiguity Aversion; Idiosyncratic Risk; Monetary Shock; Wage Indexation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General

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