The Integral Method of Hazard and Risk Assessment for the Production Facilities Operations

Effective management of Hazardous Production Facilities (HPF), forecasting of deviations from nominal modes, prevention of failures, incidents and accidents is possible only on the basis of collecting and analysis of continuous flow of information on condition of HPF and also knowledge of processes complex happening at it (technological, organizational, behavioural and so forth). In the article problems of creation of integrated index within development of control methods of HPF industrial safety condition are designated and the problem of such objects management modelling because of precedents, based on classes of states is solved (there is an event/there is no event). The indicators describing conditions of industrial safety (in fact—risks factors) are offered to consider as signs of assessed situation. Assessments of analyzed states values of integrated index deviations are used. The offered approach to integration of methods of “data mining”, conclusion based on precedents and adaptive management in consistent self-training advising system allows providing management of HPF safety and similar objects with weak formalizable behaviour. Based on a certain measure of proximity in capacity of which it is offered to use Hamming distance, one of similar precedents is chosen. The offered approach, using a method of support vectors, solves this problem according to precedents in the past. A solver (auditor, qualifier, or recognizer) always keeps the found order until essential key signs on which partial order is formed are rejected. Examples of integrated index creation are presented.