A World at Stake: Competition, Destruction, or Cooperation?

This chapter aims to open a discussion on how China is likely to impact the future of the world in a context of unprecedented historical change. It is structured around two topics. First, it aims to present fresh perspectives on the central dynamics driving geopolitical, environmental, and technological change, and their intersection with China’s evolution, employing a cyclical viewCyclical view (of history) of history. The argument is that the present global uncertaintyUncertainty and instability are due to a transitional phase in human development at the intersection of two long cycles: the cycle of great-power rivalry, and the cycle of technological revolutionTechnological revolution. Second, it seeks to bring together two typically disparate analyses: exploring both the opportunities and challenges stemming from geopolitical, environmental, and technological shifts, and those emerging from China’s rise. It argues that China acts as an ambivalent power and proposes three pairs of scenarios to further dissect its ambivalenceAmbivalence. This chapter concludes by introducing the key concept of ‘rivalry partnersRivalry partners’, emphasising that in this new epoch of consecutive and intertwined disruptionsDisruption, nations should not forego competitionCompetition. Positive and healthy competition can drive innovationInnovation and prosperityProsperity if there are clear frameworks to guide diverse political systems to be increasingly competitive without being confrontational.