AFV Industry Expanding Overseas Along the Belt and Road

BRI countries and China have ample opportunities for mutual cooperation in the automobile industry, grounded in shared resources, coordinated development, and environmental protection. While auto demand in BRI countries is rising rapidly, the industrial foundation of their auto sectors remains weak. China can provide such countries with high-quality auto products and technologies that can boost local consumption and the popularity of automobiles. This has the potential to bolster local economic growth and employment and elevate living standards. China has the capacity to assist BRI countries in their green transformation and sustainable development. Such countries can also leverage their resource advantages to expand and upgrade their alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) industry chains. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) and MarkLines, China has held the top position globally in terms of auto production and sales volume since 2009. It became the world’s largest AFV market in 2015, and surpassed Germany to become the world’s second largest auto exporter in 2022. We believe China’s auto industry is able to export high-quality products and technologies. We expect the expansion into overseas markets to not only foster the development of the auto sector in BRI countries, but also reinforce the strength of China’s auto industry. In examining Toyota’s overseas expansion since the 1970s, we see an example of mutually beneficial development in a number of Asian countries through various measures such as developing full-value-chain clusters, building factories for localization, and balancing greenfield investment and joint-venture cooperation. The similarities in background and development needs between the Chinese and Japanese auto industry chains make Toyota’s experience a valuable reference for China’s cooperation with BRI countries. In recent years, Chinese automakers have accelerated their expansion in products, production capacity, technologies, brands, and human resources in BRI countries. Despite this acceleration, policy support for automakers' overseas expansion still needs improvement, and the formation of industry clusters have yet to take shape. As such, we believe that China should strengthen collaboration with BRI countries in various aspects. We think that automakers should cultivate comprehensive and systematic capabilities to avoid disorderly investment and facilitate healthy competition. In the realm of automotive batteries, we believe China could encourage the overseas expansion of segments along the value chain to address potential resource constraints and mitigate geopolitical risks. Moreover, establishing closer ties with BRI countries in battery metals leveraging their resource advantages can enrich upstream supply sources. We believe that China’s auto industry—especially the AFV sector—will play an important role in the BRI. As the industry ventures into the global arena, China’s auto industry has the potential to generate a cluster effect for the industry chain. By leveraging the industry’s scale advantage and technological strengths, China’s auto sector can facilitate overseas expansion of products, brands, technologies, and talent. We suggest that Chinese auto companies formulate and implement strategies for overseas expansion tailored to the local conditions of BRI countries, considering their economic growth stages, development needs, and resource endowments.