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Mapping China’s Labour Force in 2035 Through the Lens of Two Censuses

In: Ageing in China

Author

Listed:
  • Juwei Zhang

    (Institute of Population and Labour, Chinese Academy of Social Science)

  • Jing Xiang

    (Institute of Population and Labour, Chinese Academy of Social Science)

Abstract

This study uses the data from China’s sixth and seventh censuses to compare the size and human capital of the labour force at the entry and exit stage in the last decade and predict the two cohorts in 2035. We find that China’s labour market will continue to face the challenge of the declining labour supply which started in 2016. However, the level of education of the current workforce is significantly higher than 2010, and the education gap between the labour force at entry and exit stage has widened considerably, suggesting that the enhanced human capital has the potential to significantly promote the economic growth. We then model the impact of two policies on the labour force in 2035. Our modelling indicates that the cumulative effect of the policy to postpone retirement is only an extra 15 million people by 2035, or merely 3 million each year. On the other hand, if compulsory education is extended to 12 years, the number of 15 to 25-year-olds entering the labour market will shrink by a cumulative 27 to 30 million people between 2021–2035. Therefore, raising the retirement age is unlikely to create enough supply to make up the loss caused by the longer years of education. Our study concludes with policy recommendations on how to leverage the enhanced human capital for future workforces to deal with dwindling labour supply as a result of an ageing population.

Suggested Citation

  • Juwei Zhang & Jing Xiang, 2023. "Mapping China’s Labour Force in 2035 Through the Lens of Two Censuses," Springer Books, in: Xin Deng & Kym Fraser & Jie Shen (ed.), Ageing in China, chapter 0, pages 19-36, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-981-19-9681-8_2
    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-19-9681-8_2
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