Expert Systems for Risk Management in the Energy Complex of the Arctic: A Lesson for Russian Oil and Gas Companies

The problems raised and considered in the article are largely related to the knowledge management system, the importance of which increases given construction in the Arctic Zone. In such critical conditions of construction, the lack of information is largely due to the practical experience of construction companies and their expert assessments of the probabilistic characteristics of possible risks. The knowledge management system is widely used in the fuel and energy sector, especially in Western energy companies. Thus, an expert system was designed and included the following elements of construction: (1) Development of feasibility study; (2) The Design Stage; (3) The Constructure Stage; (4) Start-up and adjustment works; (5) The Facility Commissioning Stage; (6) Installation supervision of the construction process; (7) Construction project/process management system; 8. Specific Arctic risks; (9) Risks of fraud in construction; and (10) Political risks. The risks that affect them have been identified and described by the following parameters: Importance/Significance of the factor (in total = 10); Presence of a risk factor (1-yes; 0-no); Expected/Probability of event (1–5); Dynamics/Increase in the significance of the event (± 1–5 percent); Selection of the trend of change in significance (1–5). As a part of simulation modeling, changes in the risk level have been calculated throughout the construction period both for individual elements and as a whole. Each level of risk contains possible consequences. Recommendations to reduce the level of risk and reduce the damage from its consequences have been outlined.