Astounding Death Figures, Cause and Adjustments

In this chapter, Yang Songlin attempts a general explanation for the GLF famine toll. To do so, he divides the period from 1949–1990 into five parts in terms of linear trend of mortality. The period from 1958–1964 stands out for exceptionally high death rate which is usually attributed to the GLF famine toll. Yang, however, argues that this is an apparent statistical anomaly and therefore cannot automatically be counted as the total GLF famine toll. Yang argues that this statistical anomaly is a result of an imperfect household registration system. Yang observes an unusual low death rate in 1952–57 and an unusual low death rate in the 1970s and an unusual high death rate in the 1980s. He argues that under-registration of death in 1953–58 has caused the registered mortality to be lower than normal, while the rectification of this under-registration in 1959–61 resulted in the sum of registered mortality significantly higher than actual death rate of the period. Likewise, the massive under-registration of death in 1965–80 and its rectification after 1980 has pushed the death rate in the 1980s to an exceptionally high level.