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How to Resolve the Statistical Dilemma

In: Telling the Truth: China’s Great Leap Forward, Household Registration and the Famine Death Tally

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  • Songlin Yang

    (Henan Provincial Development Research Center)

Abstract

This chapter examines the inconsistency in the officially published population data and offers suggestions on how to resolve certain statistical discrepancies and inconsistencies. The author uses the data collected in all the censuses and surveys conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Public Security authorities to identify the factors that may cause discrepancies and inconsistency within the data. Employing mathematical equations, Yang presents a statistical analysis of birth and death rates and numbers, taking into consideration of urban–rural migration and the inefficient mechanism of the household registration system in birth and death registration that are important in the estimation of the number of the GLF famine toll. Yang argues that large-scale under-registration, late or retrospective registration of birth, death and urban–rural migration can significantly affect the accuracy of the official data. This chapter demonstrates how the accuracy of the official data can be improved and optimized by taking such factors into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Songlin Yang, 2021. "How to Resolve the Statistical Dilemma," Springer Books, in: Telling the Truth: China’s Great Leap Forward, Household Registration and the Famine Death Tally, chapter 0, pages 35-54, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-981-16-1661-7_3
    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-16-1661-7_3
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