Future of Trade in Goods in the Belt and Road Region

The Belt and Road region has become the most important export market for China, and the market shares of China in countries along the Belt and Road have also significantly increased. Meanwhile, these countries constitute a relatively large share in China’s import market. However, China is still not the major export market for them due to different trade relations between China and sub-regions along the Belt and Road. Currently, both China’s import and export mainly concentrate on ASEAN and West Asia. Although China is laying strategic emphasis on the Belt and Road, at present most countries involved have not established free trade agreements (FTAs) with China. There are three main reasons: first, they are not in a hurry to expand exports to China because their main import market rests on other countries. Second, a number of countries along the Belt and Road also focus on manufacturing business and view China as their competitor. Once an FTA is concluded, it would be possible for soaring imports from China to affect domestic manufacturing industries. Third, specific industries in China could receive a negative impact from imports. However, after taking into account the absolute scale and growth rate of the amount of imports of the B&R countries, this Initiative is bound to be the biggest boost for the increase of China’s exports in the future. In order to promote sustainable development of trade contacts, a series of measures is necessary to alleviate trade imbalance between China and countries involved in the B&R Initiative.