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The Impact of Demographic Structure on Housing Price in Beijing Based on System Dynamics

In: Proceedings of the 23rd International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang Hong

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Gao Wen

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Li Vera

    (Hang Seng Management College)

Abstract

This paper established a system dynamics model involving demographic structure and the housing market, and conducted a simulation on housing price in Beijing between 2000 and 2050. The main findings are: (1) demographic structure shows different influence paths on housing price, urbanization rate and proportion of external population have influence on the potential population in need of housing, while proportion of labor force shows impact on per capita disposable income; (2) housing price in Beijing will slightly drop and then grow in the 35-year simulation period, while housing price and income ratio will be declining and become relatively stable; (3) urbanization rate and proportion of external population has positive affect on housing price and housing price income ratio, while proportion of labor force has positive affect on housing price but negative affect on housing price income ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang Hong & Gao Wen & Li Vera, 2021. "The Impact of Demographic Structure on Housing Price in Beijing Based on System Dynamics," Springer Books, in: Fenjie Long & Sheng Zheng & Yuzhe Wu & Gangying Yang & Yan Yang (ed.), Proceedings of the 23rd International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate, pages 546-559, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-981-15-3977-0_41
    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-15-3977-0_41
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