Relational Systems Ecology: The Anticipatory Niche and Complex Model Coupling

From an understanding of the history of holistic theory in Ecology and Relational “Holon” Theory (see companion chapter on holistic ecology and causal closure by the same authors, this section), we argue that a promising but halting parallel history of ecological niche modeling has set the stage for unlocking “final causation” as a study of adaptation. A limited form of final cause can be made scientific by identifying it with anticipatory exemplification. This has been the “missing link” in holism and holistic model coupling that is needed, for example, in coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) research. Following G.E. Hutchinson’s concept of the “abstract” “n-dimensional hypervolume,” niche modeling can be generalized for broad application today in all fields involving complex systems, expanding from its hugely successful origins in Geographical Ecology and Island Biogeography. That work demonstrated a robust scientific method despite the constraints of idealized assumptions and the limitations of competition theory, which led to its temporary decline and an advance of less-constrained heuristic methods. But to develop more realistic theory, theoretical ecology must dig deeply into the causality of niche relations and adaptation, where the niche is seen as an ecological potential and driver of dynamics. Accordingly, we should retreat from current over-use of heuristic “correlative” methods for describing ecological distributions and return to realist methods but with a deeper foundation. Focusing on the niche, we argue that current methods have instrumentally constructed false theoretical dichotomies, for example, between scales (driven by the needs of synoptic global research) or between Elton’s biotic interactions and Grinnell’s environmental controls (driven mainly by traditions in natural history). Neither of those modern pragmatic divisions reveal the niche’s theoretical importance as a model of adaptation. The more fundamental dichotomy, based on relational theory, is between potentials and actuals, as implicit in Hutchinson’s early concept of the niche. Presuming development of that concept, we propose a model coupling framework based on four parsimonious model types that, when coupled, represent a robust concept of natural organization. Methods to implement niche modeling as a hypothesis-driven scientific exploration of adaptation are demonstrated using prototype software based on the Generalized Gaussian Distribution.