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Validierung eines Expertensystems mit unsicherer Wissenskomponente

In: Wirtschaftsinformatik

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Neibecker

    (Universität Karlsruhe (TH))

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Die Fuzzy Logic bildet heute die Grundlage zur Bewältigung unscharf formulierter Probleme. Klassische Ansätze greifen hierzu auf die subjektive Bayes’sche Probabilitätstheorie zurück. Hier werden aus historischen Gründen beide Alternativen in einem Expertensystem zur Werbewirkungsanalyse (ESWA) berücksichtigt. Unter Verwendung von „objektiven“Marktforschungsdaten wird die Validität des Expertensystems überprüft. Mit Hilfe einer Monte Carlo Simulation wird schließlich eine relativierende untere Schranke zur Interpretation der Validierungsergebnisse ermittelt. In die Analyse gingen rd. 37.000 Fakten von ESWA und 11.000 Testpersonen aus der Marktforschung ein.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Neibecker, 1997. "Validierung eines Expertensystems mit unsicherer Wissenskomponente," Springer Books, in: Oskar Grün & Lutz J. Heinrich (ed.), Wirtschaftsinformatik, pages 91-103, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-7091-6872-1_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-7091-6872-1_9
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