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About the Inability to Predict the Future

In: Shaping the Future of Your Business

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  • Heino Hilbig

    (Mayflower Concepts)

Abstract

Nothing seems to be more persistent in companies than the belief that managers can, at least roughly, predict the future of their own market. Particularly long and successful industry affiliation appears to be one of the factors that support this conviction. This first chapter shows how unspeakably wrong one can be about this, why it is impossible to predict the future with human abilities and why Excel-based number crunching has nothing to do with the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Heino Hilbig, 2022. "About the Inability to Predict the Future," Springer Books, in: Shaping the Future of Your Business, chapter 1, pages 1-37, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-658-35349-0_1
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-658-35349-0_1
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