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Forecasting the Output Values of Taiwan Bicycles and Spare Parts with Fourier Modified Grey Model

In: Proceedings of 2013 4th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation (IEMI2013)

Author

Listed:
  • Lei-Chuan Lin

    (National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences)

  • Shan-Yau Wu

    (National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences)

  • Ying-Fang Huang

    (National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences)

Abstract

In this study, the conventional Grey forecasting model GM(1,1) was investigated. And to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting model, the residuals were modified with Fourier series. The Fourier modified models called FGM(1,1) have very low values of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.18 % and 2.63 %, respectively to the case of output values of bicycles and spare parts in Taiwan. These models were also tested for their forecasting ability in year 2011 that resulted in MAPE values of 8.45 % and 5.71 % respectively which make the models considered good to do the forecasting for the years 2012–2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei-Chuan Lin & Shan-Yau Wu & Ying-Fang Huang, 2014. "Forecasting the Output Values of Taiwan Bicycles and Spare Parts with Fourier Modified Grey Model," Springer Books, in: Ershi Qi & Jiang Shen & Runliang Dou (ed.), Proceedings of 2013 4th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation (IEMI2013), edition 127, pages 989-997, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-642-40060-5_95
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-40060-5_95
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