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Electric Power Forecasting in Inner Mongolia by Random Forest

In: Proceedings of 2012 3rd International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation (IEMI2012)

Author

Listed:
  • Zhi-jun Wei

    (Tianjin University)

Abstract

Demand forecasting is the foundation of planning for electricity power. Time, gross national product and population in Inner Mongolia can be viewed as three important factors influencing power demand. Rank correlation coefficients between them and demand are calculated respectively. The results display strong dependence. The function among them is fitted by Random Forest, a matured algorithm in machine learning. Relative errors of three reserved samples are 5.6, −0.4 and 3.6%. All of them are less than 6%. It is showed that Random Forest is suitable for power demand forecasting. Future gross national product and population are predicted by ARMA time series model. Substituting those values into the fitted function, power demand of 2015 in Inner Mongolia is predicted to be 236,768.07 million kilowatt-hours. The predicted value is helpful to planning development strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhi-jun Wei, 2013. "Electric Power Forecasting in Inner Mongolia by Random Forest," Springer Books, in: Runliang Dou (ed.), Proceedings of 2012 3rd International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation (IEMI2012), edition 127, chapter 0, pages 665-673, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-642-33012-4_66
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-33012-4_66
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