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Exit Polls — A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts

In: Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Hilmer

    (TNS Infratest)

Abstract

Exit polls are used today in most democratic countries to predict the outcome of an election. At the same time they enable analysis of the voting behavior of different subgroups of the population. For the Market Research Industry, exit polls have a “show-case-function” because they are at the focus of public interest when the first results are broadcast live on TV immediately after the polls have been closed. The live coverage and the comparison of the projected outcome with the real election results define the specific challenges of an exit poll. To guarantee extremely precise forecasts, high methodological and logistical efforts are necessary. The chapter delivers a detailed description of sampling procedures, fieldwork, logistics and statistical models which are needed to deliver excellent projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Hilmer, 2008. "Exit Polls — A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts," Springer Books, in: Marita Carballo & Ulf Hjelmar (ed.), Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World, pages 93-108, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-540-75753-5_7
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-75753-5_7
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