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Seasonal Forecasts

In: Demand Forecasting for Inventory Control

Author

Listed:
  • Nick T. Thomopoulos

    (Illinois Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Seasonal forecasts Seasonal forecasts Forecasts are needed when the demands over a year have a cyclical flow Cyclical flow such as the rise for light clothing during the summers; heavy clothing during the winters, school supplies in late summers; antifreeze during the winters; golf balls in the summers; cold tablets in the winters; and sunglasses in the summers. Two forecast model Forecast model s are described: the seasonal smoothing Smoothing multiplicative Multiplicative forecast model, and the seasonal smoothing additive Additive forecast model. Perhaps the most common application of the model is when the demands are monthly covering 12 months in a year. The seasonal multiplicative model Seasonal multiplicative model is described fully with example data. The model has two stages: first is to initialize the forecasts using the most current N history demands, and second is to revise the forecasts as each new monthly demand becomes available.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick T. Thomopoulos, 2015. "Seasonal Forecasts," Springer Books, in: Demand Forecasting for Inventory Control, edition 127, chapter 5, pages 59-69, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-11976-2_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-11976-2_5
    as

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