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Phenomenological Methods

In: Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty

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  • Yuri G. Raydugin

    (Risk Services & Solutions Inc.)

Abstract

This chapter introduces two phenomenological methodologies for evaluation of project durations and budgets based on historic data for previously completed projects. Two methodologies—schedule benchmarking and parametric cost estimating—are reviewed. Despite their extremely low accuracy, these are the only viable methodologies (except expert judgements and predetermined guidelines) in very early project phases when any risk assessments are not viable. However, they still allow to come up with rule-of-thumb durations and cost estimates for given types of projects which do not tell apart base estimates and risk contingencies. Reasons for their low accuracy which is tolerable in very early project phases are reviewed. No-alternativeness and low-accuracy tolerance explain why these methodologies are included in this book. Besides establishing their contexts, processes for both methodologies are outlined. No business case is provided. Strictly speaking, these methodologies belong to scheduling and estimating disciplines, although their results can be used for PRM purposes in very early project phases. As soon as the most optimal project alternative gets selected, these methods should be permanently put to the back burner.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuri G. Raydugin, 2024. "Phenomenological Methods," Springer Books, in: Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty, chapter 0, pages 157-170, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-56988-3_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-56988-3_5
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