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VAT Elasticities on Imports as a Lever to Forecast Collection: Mexico 2010–2021

In: Creating Economic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Moreno Espinosa

    (Universidad Panamericana)

  • Leovardo Mata Mata

    (Universidad Anáhuac México)

  • Jaime Humberto Beltrán-Godoy

    (Universidad Anáhuac México)

Abstract

This chapter obtained the elasticities of VAT collection with respect to merchandise imports classified in the 99 chapters of the International Harmonized System 2010–2021. Evidence of an equilibrium relationship, in the long run, was found by cointegration in a VEC model. The results show that sixteen chapters explain 82% of the value of imports with different elasticities which allows identifying the sensitivity of VAT collection in generating income from imports. The chapters that stand out are machinery and electrical material; mechanical devices, boilers, and their parts; goods related to land transport and its parts, and mineral fuels and their products. The elasticities can be a lever that contributes to a better forecast of tax government revenues, specifically of the second source of income.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Moreno Espinosa & Leovardo Mata Mata & Jaime Humberto Beltrán-Godoy, 2023. "VAT Elasticities on Imports as a Lever to Forecast Collection: Mexico 2010–2021," Springer Books, in: Enrique Murillo & Paolo Riccardo Morganti & Javier Moreno Espinosa (ed.), Creating Economic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty, chapter 0, pages 115-139, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-41386-5_6
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-41386-5_6
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    Keywords

    Cointegration; Error correction vector; VAT collection; Classification; E62;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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