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Medium Term: Where Are Emerging Markets Headed?

In: Emerging Markets in a World of Chaos

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  • Ali Zafar

Abstract

The world in the next 25 years is unpredictable, of course, but a few trends may be identifiable and relevant. The world economy until 2050 and beyond will face a series of structural shifts that will affect both advanced and developing economies. Six tailwinds and six headwinds are identified. The tailwinds are: good macroeconomic fundamentals; improving health and education coupled with young demography; rise of capital market and fintech with growing private sector; growing state capacity; regional trade and skills upgrading; and the rise of renewables. Headwinds are: macro uncertainties, including low global growth, inflation and high debt; growing inequality and gender discrimination; end of an era of cheap money; authoritarian populism, institutional weakening, and corruption; selective deglobalization and productivity shortfalls; and accelerating climate change that represents an existential threat to the planet.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Zafar, 2023. "Medium Term: Where Are Emerging Markets Headed?," Springer Books, in: Emerging Markets in a World of Chaos, chapter 0, pages 141-162, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-29949-0_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-29949-0_5
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