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Testing and Forecasting the Unemployment Rate with the Most Current Data, TCB LEI, Data as of 11/05/2021

In: The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • John B. Guerard

    (McKinley Capital Management, LLC)

Abstract

Ιn this chapter we examine, in the context of a data-specific case study, the automatic time series approach to modeling and forecasting time series. The author asked his (good) friends and former colleagues of Victor Zarnowitz at The Conference Board for an updated version of the TCB LEI database. We specifically wanted to re-estimate the regression and time series models with the addition of U.S. data in the first 11 months of 2021. Will the reader see notable differences in the model estimates?

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Guerard, 2022. "Testing and Forecasting the Unemployment Rate with the Most Current Data, TCB LEI, Data as of 11/05/2021," Springer Books, in: The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States, chapter 0, pages 415-580, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-99418-1_10
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-99418-1_10
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