Hybrid Attack Modeling for Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection

The chapter is aimed at the development of a novel spatially and temporally referenced model of hybrid attacks on critical energy infrastructure, based on the hierarchical spatial model, the time model, as well as the hierarchical energy infrastructure model. Since hybrid operations are multistage and multistep, the achievement of the strategic objective of the attacker is related to the gradual achievement of a certain sequence of smaller-level goals by elementary hybrid attacks or hybrid episodes. In this regard, a model of a goal hierarchy is proposed representing the sets of goals of different levels. Hybrid attacks are represented as scenarios composed of sequences of events restricted by time intervals. The past or simulated scenarios are accumulated in a case base to test observed sequences of events concerning their similarity to some known patterns. A case consists of a certain condition represented by the scenario of hybrid operation, as well as a solution that defines threatening critical nodes, a corresponding goal, and a set of possible effects. Cases can be accumulated by simulation on computer models. Using a scenario-case approach, threats and risks for critical energy infrastructure can be approximately assessed. The proposed approach can support dynamic decision-making whereby optimal decisions can be determined based on both generic information from the past provided by cases and rigorous anticipation about the future. It enables more effective use of information simulating the actual decision-making process in early warning systems.