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Debt: A Debt Crisis Is Probably Unavoidable in a Bid to Create Jobs

In: The Time-Travelling Economist

Author

Listed:
  • Charlie Robertson

Abstract

By 2025–30, the number of 15–19 year old Africans will exceed the number of young Indians, creating tremendous pressure on governments to “create” jobs via spending. The lack of local savings in high fertility countries incentivises governments to borrow from abroad. We saw this in Latin America in the 1980s (when fertility rates were around four) and in much of Africa and Pakistan today. Unless falling fertility allows countries to replace that external debt with local savings debt default becomes more likely. China and private investors have partly replaced official Western creditors and have quite different views on debt issues. We suggest excess borrowing for transport infrastructure accelerates the risk of default. We outline which countries are most at risk in the 2020s.

Suggested Citation

  • Charlie Robertson, 2022. "Debt: A Debt Crisis Is Probably Unavoidable in a Bid to Create Jobs," Springer Books, in: The Time-Travelling Economist, pages 161-192, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-97597-5_4
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-97597-5_4
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