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Tracing the Sources of Contagion in the Oil-Finance Nexus

In: Applications in Energy Finance

Author

Listed:
  • Scott M. R. Mahadeo

    (University of Portsmouth)

  • Reinhold Heinlein

    (University of the West of England)

  • Gabriella D. Legrenzi

    (University of Keele
    CESifo Research Network
    Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

Abstract

We introduce an approach to trace the genesis of contagion occurring in the oil-finance nexus, which consolidates veteran non-linear oil price measures derived from the empirical oil literature, to construct a rule-based specification for filtering structural oil market shocks into calm and extreme episodes. Such identified conditions are useful to understand how changing scenarios in the international crude oil market influence the dynamic relationships between the crude oil, exchange rate, and stock markets. As we are the first to explicitly consider how the relationship between the exchange rateExchange rate and stock market change under extreme oil market shocks, our applications to a small emerging oil-exporter provide novel results about this particular linkage. We find that the positive supply shocks and negative demand shocks associated with the 2014/2015 oil price crash coincide with a marked increase in the inverse exchange rateExchange rate-stock market relationship. This highlights the importance of including exchange ratesExchange rate when analysing the dependence between oil and stock markets. Our results also show that international financial crises, such as the Asian flu and dot-com crash, are episodes of contagion in an otherwise weak oil-stock market relationship. In addition, we provide findings which are consistent with previous empirical literature that extreme demand-side oil market shocks tend to dominate the absolute increase in cross-market linkages and that the 2008/2009 global financial crisis is the most prominent contemporary event in the oil-finance nexus in a pre-COVID-19 world.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella D. Legrenzi, 2022. "Tracing the Sources of Contagion in the Oil-Finance Nexus," Springer Books, in: Christos Floros & Ioannis Chatziantoniou (ed.), Applications in Energy Finance, chapter 0, pages 115-143, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-92957-2_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-92957-2_5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Correlation; Exchange rate; Oil; Shock; Stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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