New Jobs or Technological Unemployment?

It is not the first time that innovations disrupt the labour market. Just as in 1831 silk weavers destroyed looms because they feared losing their jobs, in 2015 taxi drivers set fire to Uber’s cars in Paris, and in 2019 dockworkers went on strike against increasing automation of logistics giant Maersk in Los Angeles. However, in the course of history, innovation has always fostered employment. And economic growth has been the main conduit between innovation and employment. The transition has never been easy. In the short term, innovation has led to the sacrifice of certain sectors and related jobs. But in the longer term it has brought productivity gains, rise in average wages, enlargement of the size of the economy and creation of new jobs. The benefit on employment emerged only after some time—due to the necessary adaptations to new technologies and working methods—and the beneficiaries were not necessarily the same people who had lost their traditional occupations. Nevertheless, once the transition was complete, the impact on employment was positive. Things may be different in the future. First of all, it is no longer a foregone conclusion that innovation generates growth. And in the event of degrowth or secular stagnation employment suffers. Second, even when innovation expands the economy, it may pave the way for a jobless growth and technological unemployment. The effect on employment may also be conditioned by sustainability constraints to economic growth. As a result, the new jobs may be fewer than those lost, less value may be placed on work, and transitioning to new professions may be challenging. In this case, the overall wealth grows but significant redistribution problems emerge. In the future will economic growth continue to be the transmission belt between innovation and employment?