Pandemic Analysis V: The Science and Economics of a Vaccine for Ending the Pandemic

This chapter provides, after a comprehensive review of the COVID-19 vaccine development and administration efforts during 2020 and 2021, an exposition of economic and policy questions on pandemic vaccines. It starts with the science of vaccines or vaccinology explained in the context of the novel coronavirus. A list of historical achievements in vaccinology is reviewed. For the COVID-19, the vaccine development process comprised a selection of vaccine methodologies, a candidate vaccine manufacturing, a selection of candidate vaccines, three phases of clinical trials, an emergency use authorization, a mass production, and a mass distribution. A critical role that the government has played in developing high-efficacy mRNA vaccines in record time can be explained by the Operation Warp Speed. Six unique aspects of the vaccine economics are clarified: inter alia, an incredible benefit-cost ratio, a backstop technology solution, a time lapse between the pandemic outbreak and the first vaccine availability, a best-shot production technology. These are referred to in this chapter as the four dimensions of the vaccine economics. Finally, this chapter provides an early analysis of whether the worldwide vaccination efforts will end the COVID-19 and whether the country vaccination rates will reach a plateau soon.