Transition and Triad

The aftermath of the pandemic promises to be a period of strong, albeit uneven growth in response to highly stimulative fiscal and monetary policies. It is also a period of major policy reforms in response to structural problems highlighted by the pandemic. Biden’s ambitious “Build Back Better” agenda compares in scope and scale to America’s great reform programs of the 1930s and 1960s. But its success hinges on the United States overcoming its ongoing crisis of democracy which Trump’s presidency has brought to a dangerous point of division and turmoil. In the meantime, China is rebalancing its engines of economic growth and social peace under the autocratic leadership of Xi Jinping and his government’s “dual circulation” strategy while also setting in motion steps to accelerate the country’s global reach, including an acceleration of its currency’s internationalization. The Europeans, too, have used the pandemic for far-reaching reforms bound to strengthen the international role of their single currency, the euro. Reforms in all three power centers move us toward a more regionally focused tri-polar (“triad”) international monetary system, while accelerating efforts toward a carbon–neutral economy provide a global context for the emerging new accumulation regime.