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Estimating and Forecasting

In: Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes

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  • Harold L. Vogel

Abstract

The basic elements needed for defining and finding bubbles and crashes are now in place and this chapter collates, extends, and summarizes the concepts that have earlier been developed. The result is a practical empirical method that enables extreme events to be statistically defined, detected, and tested by applying the elasticity of variance approach to real-world data. Given the fractal, scaled nature of financial markets, all bubbles and crashes are comprised of what can be called microbubbles and microcrashes. Predictability and forecasting aspects are then covered as extensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Harold L. Vogel, 2021. "Estimating and Forecasting," Springer Books, in: Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, edition 3, chapter 0, pages 445-469, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-79182-7_10
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-79182-7_10
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