The Impact of the “European Green Deal” on the Import of Natural Gas from Russia

The article proves the hypothesis that the “European Green Deal” will not stop the import of hydrocarbons into the EU, in particular natural gas from Russia, during the next 10 years. 4 groups of reasons are presented: the ratio of the cost of the energy transition and that of energy imports; collisions in the use of renewable energy sources and the existing electricity generation infrastructure in the EU; the clustering of EU countries due to the support of the Green Deal; EU orientation toward diversification of suppliers and fuels. The arguments for and against are considered. The latter are represented by two main factors: climate—objective—and politicization of the EU energy sector—subjective. Methodology of the research includes financial analytics, extrapolation modeling of imported natural gas from Russia based on private, supranational, and author’s estimates, an empirical analysis of the energy policies of the EU states, and a comprehensive assessment of the historically developed macroeconomic relations of the Greater Europe region. As a result, the author offers scenarios for the implementation of the energy transition involving imported natural gas: (1) the transition of the EU economy from the predominance of oil in energy production to the dominance of natural gas while maintaining the existing share of renewable energy sources; (2) the transition to a “green” economy through a “blue” economy for most EU countries; (3) separation of EU energy security and climate neutrality strategies based on prevailing clusters regarding the priority of using renewable energy sources.