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The Impact of Demographics on the Level of Tariffs

In: Debt in Times of Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • James Ming Chen

    (College of Law, Michigan State University)

  • Thomas Poufinas

    (Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace)

  • Charalampos Agiropoulos

    (Department of International and European Studies, University of Piraeus)

  • George Galanos

    (Department of International and European Studies, University of Piraeus)

Abstract

Demography almost surely affects the ability of countries to manage their debt levels as part of their overall macroeconomic policy. By the same token, the demographic attributes of labor influence political decisions among nation-states, including international trade policy. In particular, the free movement of labor is a bedrock principle of the European Union and a reason to join it or withdraw from it. This study investigates the influence of (labor) demographics on tariffs in 45 OECD and non-OECD countries. Through a series of econometric models and machine learning techniques we find evidence that the population and labor force may influence the level of tariffs, depending on the model and the database. By contrast, migration does not. Income per capita and consumption affect the tariff rate as well. Machine learning methods confirm conclusions reached through conventional econometrics and shed further light on the relationship between tariff levels and their hypothesized predictors.

Suggested Citation

  • James Ming Chen & Thomas Poufinas & Charalampos Agiropoulos & George Galanos, 2021. "The Impact of Demographics on the Level of Tariffs," Springer Books, in: Thomas Poufinas (ed.), Debt in Times of Crisis, chapter 0, pages 101-131, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-74162-4_4
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-74162-4_4
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