Development of E-Mobility

This chapter analyzes numerous relevant studies, forecast, scenario models, surveys, and reports, in order to give a profound statement about the future development of e-mobility. Reports and studies used in this book contain very current and deep industry insights from research departments of renowned consultancies and investment banks. Based on the analyzed studies and models, an average value will be calculated and will be used for the forecast model of this book. The forecast model lays the scientific starting point for the following chapters of the book. First of all, a big picture of the current EV market will be given, in order to understand the current key markets, market share of EVs, key OEMs, etc., within the automotive e-mobility industry. Within the three core markets of EVs, China is leading the global EV market with a strong focus on BEVs rather than on PHEVs. Additionally, this chapter shows that EVs are constantly increasing market share and represent a global growth market. Tesla leads the EV sales of American OEMs. In Europe, Renault and the VW group are predominantly European OEM sales leaders followed by BMW. In the Asian market, Nissan and BYD are dominating the EV sales of Asian automobile manufacturers in 2016. In the second part of this chapter, different influencing factors will be evaluated. Subsequently, different forecast models and scenario models will be outlined. Therefore, exclusive reports from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan, and Deloitte will be analyzed. From the revealed information an own forecast model for the development of e-mobility will be derived. The result of the forecast analysis shows that the global electric vehicle sales will surpass the sales of conventional internal combustion engines between 2030 and 2040. The main drivers derived from the analyzed reports contain: Decreasing cost of batteries within the future, shifting consumer preferences toward EVs, decreasing consumer prices and finance cost, improving charging infrastructure, increasing battery life, decreasing cost of ownership, increasing EV driving range, decreasing EV manufacturing costs, increasing ICE manufacturing costs, ambitious EV sales targets for China, falling diesel sales and residual vehicle pricing in EU, and reduced EV charging infrastructure costs.