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Forecasting

In: Business Cycles in the Run of History

Author

Listed:
  • Thierry Aimar

    (Université de Lorraine)

  • Francis Bismans

    (Université de Lorraine)

  • Claude Diebolt

    (Université de Strasbourg)

Abstract

This chapter is devoted to the study of the German business cycle. In the tradition of Burns and Mitchell, it considers its classical form, which is represented by fluctuations in the series of the real Gross Domestic Product. After a methodological introduction, the chapter presents the main features of the German business cycle after dating it. Then it develops a probit model in order to predict recessions for the totality of the analyzed period. Finally, the chapter delivers a forecasting in real time for the most recent economic period.

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2016. "Forecasting," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Business Cycles in the Run of History, chapter 0, pages 69-84, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:spbchp:978-3-319-24325-2_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-24325-2_5
    as

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