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Tracking Business and Growth Cycles in the Chinese Economy Using Composite Indexes

In: Business Cycles in BRICS

Author

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  • Ataman Ozyildirim

    (The Conference Board Inc.)

Abstract

In many countries, composite indexes of leading economic indicators (LEI) are used to help predict short-term cyclical fluctuations of the economy in conjunction with composite indexes of coincident economic indicators (CEI). They also serve to analyze short-term macroeconomic dynamics of the business cycle. Predicting turning points in the business cycle is extremely challenging, but the long history of research on leading indicators provides empirical evidence that LEIs can help in this task. This chapter describes the process behind the construction of one of the most challenging-to-construct indexes for China. We discuss The Conference Board’s selection of leading indicators of the Chinese economy since 1986 and how this selection evolved after the initial publication of the LEI and CEI for China. Chronologies of business and growth cycles are used to evaluate the selected indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Ataman Ozyildirim, 2019. "Tracking Business and Growth Cycles in the Chinese Economy Using Composite Indexes," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 405-423, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:socchp:978-3-319-90017-9_25
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_25
    as

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