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Modern Trends in Evaluation of Macroeconomic Structural Changes

In: Industry 4.0

Author

Listed:
  • Igor A. Yevsikov

    (Department of Applied Mathematics and Informatics of the Saint-Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering)

  • Konstantin O. Korovin

    (Saint Petersburg Peter the Great Polytechnic University)

  • Askar I. Sarygulov

    (Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Doctor of Economic Sciences)

Abstract

The evolution of social-economic systems is nonlinear, containing both periods of gradual changes and swift transformational upswings. Seven years after the end of the last crisis of 2007–2009, recovery rates of the US and European economies remain extremely low. One of the reasons is structural-economic crisis, requiring considerable time and substantial financial resources to overcome. By the start of the crisis, all developed economies of the world, particularly US economy, had well pronounced structural allometry with disproportionally high share of the financial and banking sectors. In this paper we propose new approaches for the evaluation of structural shifts, based on the attractor theory, the use of proportionality factor and Wold-Mensch’ nonlinear model. Our results allow the construction of structural changes monitoring system and also demonstrated, that there always exist certain states in economic system, in which the volume of production (GDP) exceeds their empirical value. The proposed system for the monitoring of structural changes can be used not only for research purposes, but also for structural shift management.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor A. Yevsikov & Konstantin O. Korovin & Askar I. Sarygulov, 2017. "Modern Trends in Evaluation of Macroeconomic Structural Changes," Studies on Entrepreneurship, Structural Change and Industrial Dynamics, in: Tessaleno Devezas & João Leitão & Askar Sarygulov (ed.), Industry 4.0, pages 93-116, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:seschp:978-3-319-49604-7_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-49604-7_5
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    Cited by:

    1. Bozena Chovancova & Michaela Dorocakova & Viera Malacka, 2018. "Changes in the industrial structure of GDP and stock indices also with regard to industry 4.0," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(2), pages 402-414, April.

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