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Hot Hands in Cold Water

In: The Economics of Aquatic Sports

Author

Listed:
  • Jill S. Harris

    (United States Air Force Academy)

  • James Graham

    (University of the Pacific)

Abstract

Cross-sectional data from a NCAA Division 1 Men’s and Women’s water polo program is used to investigate the “myth” of the hot hand. Following the pioneering work of Gilovich et al. (Cognitive Psychol 17: 295–314, 1985), analysis of conditional probabilities, serial correlation, and runs reveals partial evidence in support of the hot hand on both individual and aggregate levels. The results are counter to Gilovich et al. and potentially important in light of Wardrop’s (Am Stat 49: 24–28, 1999) critiques and recent work by Arkes (J Q Anal Sports 6(1), 2010) and Stone (Am Stat 66(1):61–66, 2012), indicating these approaches lack power and are subject to measurement error. A probit model of shots is estimated using player fixed effects. The results suggest player position, and experience together with the sequence of the shot in the series all influence the likelihood of successful shots.

Suggested Citation

  • Jill S. Harris & James Graham, 2020. "Hot Hands in Cold Water," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Jill S. Harris (ed.), The Economics of Aquatic Sports, chapter 0, pages 15-24, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:semchp:978-3-030-52340-4_3
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-52340-4_3
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