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Long-Run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding on Markets and Production Networks: Geographical Simulation Analysis

In: Resilience and Recovery in Asian Disasters

Author

Listed:
  • Ikumo Isono

    (Institute of Developing Economies)

  • Satoru Kumagai

    (Inter-disciplinary Studies Center, IDE-JETRO)

Abstract

We discuss the long-run economic impact of natural disasters on affected countries by examining the case of flooding in Thailand in 2011. If the damage caused by disasters is really serious, industries will move out from the countries in question, and this outflow leads to a negative impact on the national economies in the long run. By using IDE/ERIA-GSM modeling and utilizing short-run forecasts for the basic setting, we estimate the seriousness of the flooding in terms of the long-term economic performance. Simulation results show that negative long-run impacts of the flood will likely be moderate as many companies’ first reaction to the flood was to seek possible relocation of their production sites within Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai, 2015. "Long-Run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding on Markets and Production Networks: Geographical Simulation Analysis," Risk, Governance and Society, in: Daniel P. Aldrich & Sothea Oum & Yasuyuki Sawada (ed.), Resilience and Recovery in Asian Disasters, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 155-169, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:rischp:978-4-431-55022-8_8
    DOI: 10.1007/978-4-431-55022-8_8
    as

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