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Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty

In: Risk Assessment, Modeling and Decision Support

Author

Listed:
  • Robin K. McGuire

    (Risk Engineering Inc.)

Abstract

Decisions about the level of resources appropriate for seismic risk mitigation must be made in the context of uncertainties about seismic risk. This is true if uncertainties are quantified and is also true if they are ignored, for ignoring uncertainties does not make them go away. Critical uncertainties are related to the level of seismic hazard (the amplitudes of ground motion and their frequencies of occurrence) and to the vulnerabilities of facilities to seismic shaking. With a complete description of these uncertainties, complete seismic risk curves (loss vs. annual frequency of occurrence) can be developed. These seismic risk curves can form the basis for informed decisions about seismic risk mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Robin K. McGuire, 2008. "Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty," Risk, Governance and Society, in: Ann Bostrom & Steven French & Sara Gottlieb (ed.), Risk Assessment, Modeling and Decision Support, chapter 8, pages 185-198, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:rischp:978-3-540-71158-2_8
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-71158-2_8
    as

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