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Managing Risks of the Unknown

In: Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards

Author

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  • Sven Ove Hansson

    (Royal Institute of Technology (KTH))

Abstract

Traditional probabilistic risk assessment needs to be supplemented in at least two ways: We need ways to analyze risks for which no meaningful probability assessments are available, and we need to take into account ethical issues such as voluntariness, intentions, consent and equity. In this contribution three tools for such an extended risk assessment are presented with a particular emphasis on how they can be used to deal with risks that have large components of natural causes: Possibility analysis deals with “mere possibility arguments”, i.e. risks that we know very little about. The three-party model is a framework for analyzing the ethics of risk. Hypothetical retrospection is a method for overall assessment of risks in non-numerical terms. These tools are all constructed to introduce important considerations into risk assessment that tend to be excluded or neglected in the traditional approaches. This widening of the scope of risk assessment does not make the assessment easier, but it can contribute to making its output more useful and more responsive to social needs.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Ove Hansson, 2016. "Managing Risks of the Unknown," Risk, Governance and Society, in: Paolo Gardoni & Colleen Murphy & Arden Rowell (ed.), Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 155-172, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:rischp:978-3-319-22126-7_10
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-22126-7_10
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    Cited by:

    1. Armin Tabandeh & Paolo Gardoni & Colleen Murphy, 2018. "A Reliability‐Based Capability Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 410-424, February.
    2. Zvi Safra & Sinong Ma & Tigran Melkonyan, 2019. "Is Allocation Affected by the Perception of Others' Irresponsible Behavior and by Ambiguity?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(10), pages 2182-2196, October.
    3. Sven Ove Hansson, 2018. "How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1820-1829, September.

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