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Forecasting the Spatial Distribution of Buildings that Will Remain in the Future

In: From Science to Society

Author

Listed:
  • Toshihiro Osaragi

    (Tokyo Institute of Technology)

  • Maki Kishimoto

    (Tokyo Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Changes in land use in established city areas generally arise when older style buildings are demolished and replaced by contemporary buildings. The direction and the speed of land use change are dependent on the possibility and probability that buildings will be demolished or will remain in the future. Hence, various studies about the life span of buildings have been carried out, and proposed statistical models that could estimate the value of probability that buildings would be demolished or would remain in a specific time interval, based on the age of buildings. However, in general it is not easy to acquire the necessary information about the age of buildings. In order to extend the application of the proposed model to these cases, we propose a method for estimating the number of buildings that will remain in the future when data about the age of buildings cannot be obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Toshihiro Osaragi & Maki Kishimoto, 2018. "Forecasting the Spatial Distribution of Buildings that Will Remain in the Future," Progress in IS, in: Benoît Otjacques & Patrik Hitzelberger & Stefan Naumann & Volker Wohlgemuth (ed.), From Science to Society, pages 3-12, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:prochp:978-3-319-65687-8_1
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-65687-8_1
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