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Application of S-curve and Modified S-curve in Transition Economies’ GDP Forecasting. Visegrad Four Countries Case

In: Contemporary Trends and Challenges in Finance

Author

Listed:
  • Rafał Siedlecki

    (Wroclaw University of Economics)

  • Daniel Papla

    (Wroclaw University of Economics)

  • Agnieszka Bem

    (Wroclaw University of Economics)

Abstract

S-curve is usually used to describe economic or natural phenomena, which follow the rule of the logistic growth. In this paper we propose to use the modified S-curve, due to the “unlimited growth” phenomenon. The aim of this research is to show the application of the S-curve as well as the modified S-curve in GDP growth forecasting, using data from transition economies. This paper presents also the proposal of numerical estimation of the modified S-curve parameters. According to paper’s aims, we have posed the following research hypotheses: (H1) the S-curve and the modified S-curve are effective tools of economic development forecasting for transition economies; (H2) the modified S-curve is more efficient than ordinary S-curve in GDP forecasting for transition economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafał Siedlecki & Daniel Papla & Agnieszka Bem, 2018. "Application of S-curve and Modified S-curve in Transition Economies’ GDP Forecasting. Visegrad Four Countries Case," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Krzysztof Jajuga & Hermann Locarek-Junge & Lucjan T. Orlowski (ed.), Contemporary Trends and Challenges in Finance, pages 91-98, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-319-76228-9_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-76228-9_9
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